Risk and position sizing

Partial Exit Calculator

Scaling out lowers variance and lowers expectancy at the same time. Enter the trade to see both halves of that exchange.

The trade

The partial

Locked in so far
Units closed
Units remaining
Partial exit in R
Worst case now
Full-target result you gave up

Taking part of a position off reduces variance and reduces expectancy at the same time — the winners get smaller while the losers stay the same size. That is a legitimate exchange when it buys the discipline to hold the rest; it is a costly habit when it is simply relief.

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What the numbers mean

locked in    = (exit − entry) × units × share closed
worst case   = locked in + (new stop − entry) × units remaining

Close half a 100,000-unit position at 1.0900 from an entry of 1.0850 and $250 is banked. Move the stop on the rest to the entry price and the worst outcome for the whole trade becomes +$250 rather than −$500.

That is the appeal, and it is real: the trade can no longer lose.

The half nobody calculates

Scaling out does two things at once, and only one of them is visible on the screen.

It removes downside from a trade that is currently winning. It also removes upside from every trade that would have run, because half the position is no longer there when the target arrives.

The losers, meanwhile, are unaffected. A trade that goes straight to the stop was never partially exited — it loses the full amount. So the distribution changes in exactly one direction: winners get smaller, losers stay the same size.

The last row on this calculator prices that. On a trade that reaches 2R, scaling half at 1R gives up a quarter of the result. Do it on every trade and the strategy's expectancy falls by roughly the same proportion, permanently.

When it is worth paying

The exchange is legitimate when it buys something you actually need:

  • It buys the ability to hold. If banking a partial is what lets you leave the rest alone to the target, the expectancy lost is cheaper than the expectancy lost by closing everything early out of discomfort.
  • It buys a smoother curve. Lower variance is worth real money to anyone whose behaviour degrades in a drawdown, and to anyone trading a funded account with a hard daily limit.

It is not worth paying when the partial is simply relief — taken because the position being green is uncomfortable, at a level chosen by the feeling rather than by the plan.

The specific mistake

Scaling out before 1R — before the trade has earned back what it risked.

At that point the partial is too small to protect anything meaningful and large enough to remove most of the trade's ability to pay for its losers. A method with a genuine edge gets traded into a negative one this way, without any individual decision looking wrong.

The calculator warns below 1R for that reason. If a partial belongs in the plan, it belongs at a level decided in advance — and grading the outcome afterwards in R-multiples is what shows whether the habit is paying for itself.

FAQ

Should I take partial profits?

It depends on what it buys. If banking part of a trade is what allows you to hold the rest to target, it pays for itself. If it is taken to relieve the discomfort of an open profit, it costs expectancy without buying discipline.

How much should I scale out?

A half or a third are the common conventions. The more important question is the level: taking a partial below 1R removes most of the trade's earning power while protecting very little.

Does scaling out reduce my risk?

It reduces the remaining exposure and, if the stop is moved to break-even, can remove the loss entirely. What it does not reduce is the size of the losses on trades that never reached the partial level at all.

Why did my expectancy fall after I started scaling out?

Because the winners shrank and the losers did not. Trades that run are cut short by the partial; trades that fail lose the full amount. Over a large sample that asymmetry lowers the average result.

Is it better to move the stop to break-even instead?

It is a different trade-off — moving the stop keeps the full size for the upside and gives up nothing in return, at the cost of being stopped out more often on trades that retrace and then work. Many traders do both, which doubles the effect on the winners.

This is the plan. What did you actually do?

A calculator tells you the size you should have taken. It cannot tell you the size you took at 2pm after two losers, or how often your stop moved once price went against you. Drop in a statement from MT4/MT5, a broker CSV or a crypto export and see the answer for your own last 90 trades.

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